Day One = Never

In my job as a project manager, we implement new products and processes in phases. Recently, we have been joking that whenever someone asks when a certain new product or process will be available, we say, "It's in Phase 2." When someone asks what Phase 2 is, we say, "It means never."

The DP chronicles Kerry's visit to Southern Colorado where he talked about health care: "Kerry promised to lower annual health insurance costs by $1,000 a person and guaranteed that every child would have health insurance 'as of Day One.'"

Now what does he mean by "Day One?" Is this as of inauguration day? Probably not. Is it in the first 100 days? Maybe, but that would be very difficult to do. Unless there is a major political collapse and the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate, I doubt that a victorious Kerry would ever be able to deliver on this promise. So basically, Day One, like Phase 2, means never.

As a sidebar, I have decided to start doing a little research of my own on health insurance. I keep hearing that 44 million Americans don't have health insurance. I decided to check it out. Using U.S. Census reports, I looked at the number of uninsured as real numbers of people who are uninsured. I also looked at numbers of people who are uninsured as a percentage of the U.S. population. I have to assume that since all the data is from the same source that the numbers are consistent. I also figure that percentages give a better apples to apples comparison due to population changes.

Here's what I found out:

Column 1 = Year
Column 2 = Number of uninsured in millions
Column 3 = Uninsured as a percentage of population

1993 |39.7 |15.3
1994 |39.7 |15.2
1995 |40.6 |15.4
1996 |41.7 |15.6
1997 |43.4 |16.1
1998 |44.3 |16.3
1999 |42.6 |15.5
2000 |38.7 |14
2001 |41.2 |14.6
2002 |43.6 |15.2

As you can see, this shows the Clinton years and 2 years under Bush (2003 isn't out yet). 2 years into Clinton's first term (1994), the rate was 15.2%. 2 years into Bush's first term (2002), 15.2%. To be fair, 2 years into a term is a short time to get this rate down (unless you are Kerry, see above). Where was Clinton 2 years into his second term (1998)? 16.3% I think I remember that health care was one of Bill and Hillary's big ticket items.

Another interesting trend I noted. Usually in these reports, it explains that decreases in the uninsured rates are due to lower unemployment rates and more people having employer-sponsored insurance. You can see that from 1998 to 2000, the uninsured percentage went down quite a bit as the tech boom took off. Then the rates came back up from 2000 to 2002 as the tech bust, 9/11, and corporate scandals took their toll. However, when I lay on the annual unemployment rates (from the U.S. Dept. of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics), the figures look like this:

Column 1 = Year
Column 2 = Number of uninsured in millions
Column 3 = Uninsured as a percentage of population
Column 4 = Unemployment Rate

1993 |39.7 |15.3 |6.9
1994 |39.7 |15.2 |6.1
1995 |40.6 |15.4 |5.6
1996 |41.7 |15.6 |5.4
1997 |43.4 |16.1 |4.9
1998 |44.3 |16.3 |4.5
1999 |42.6 |15.5 |4.2
2000 |38.7 |14 |4
2001 |41.2 |14.6 |4.7
2002 |43.6 |15.2 |5.8

Between 1993 and 1998, the unemployment rate went down (more people had jobs), but the percentage of uninsured went up (less people had insurance). This is a trend contrary to conventional wisdom. Were the new jobs not the right kind of jobs? Were the new jobs not high paying jobs? Did the government stop providing health care insurance to more people under the Clinton administration? Anyone who has an explanation, I'd like to hear it.