Budget Projections/Predictions

The CBO has it's latest budget projections available here. If you look Page 8, table 1-3, you see how the budget deficit/surplus might look in the coming years:

2006 = Deficit of $248 Billion
2007 = Deficit of $172 Billion
2008 = Deficit of $98 Billion
2009 = Deficit of $116 Billion
2010 = Deficit of $137 Billion
2011 = Deficit of $12 Billion
2012 = Surplus of $170 Billion
2013 = Surplus of $159 Billion
2014 = Surplus of $185 Billion
2015 = Surplus of $208 Billion
2016 = Surplus of $192 Billion

A couple of thoughts on this:

1. Since the Deficit in 2004 was $413 Billion and it is projected to be $172 Billion this year, it looks like President Bush will more than meet his goal of cutting the deficit in half. If you don't hear anything about this story, you will know he met his goal. Some more good news: the deficit is under 2% of the GDP. Keep that in mind when you hear stories of historically high deficits.

2. In 2008, there will still be a deficit, which will most likely become a theme in the Presidential elections. Assuming these projections stay close, there will be projected increases in the deficit in 2009 and 2010 which can work for or against the Republicans, depending on where the blame can go - the Democrat Congress or the President.

3. If a Democrat wins the White House in 2008 and these projections stay the same, going into the 2012 campaign, the incumbent can point to a projected surplus in coming years and say, "See what I did."

Of course, a Republican President can say the same thing, which is why it is so important to have the Presidency in 2008.