Friday, October 29, 2004

OBL - What Does It Mean?

So Osama is back with a new tape. There'll be no way to say for certain that its not him. How does it affect the election? As I wrote earlier, there can't be that many undecideds left. Some may take the new video as a reminder that we are at war and stick with the President. Some may take the video as a signal that we haven't gotten rid of OBL and Kerry may do better. However, I can't think that this really sways the election, except...

The Al Qa Qaa story was obviously the story that the Democrats and MSM wanted to run with up through the election. Now, it's history. Gone. Finished. Off the front page. The focus is back on OBL and the Global War on Terror. For the next 4 days, it will be all about who can protect you better: President Bush or John Kerry.

The polls have shown that voters prefer President Bush in the War on Terror, but we'll see if this new video changes any minds or of it gives Bush the last boost he needs to get a second term.

Welcome Reaganesque

I've added another blog to the Blogroll under Young Conservatives. Reaganesque is run by a young conservative from California (I know, it's incredible that such a person exists these days). Make sure to visit often.

What a Bunch of Qa Qaa

A cold has got me down today, so I'm staying home.

This afforded me the rare opportunity to see the Pentagon press conference on the missing explosives. It didn't explain anything other than the guy blew up 250 tons of ammunition. Other than that, the Pentagon is still investigating.

But the KSTP video didn't do any better job explaining that the explosives were still in the bunkers. There were IAEA seals, but you can't tell if they were at Al Qa Qaa, you can't tell if there was anything still in the bunker, and you can't tell if the stuff that they did show was RDX or HMX. So nothing definitive there, either.

This story is a waste of time. If you aren't already decided, I can't see how this is going to change your overall view of the candidates. "President Bush didn't secure 1/1000th of the total ammunitions in Iraq, oh, then I won't vote for him." "John Kerry is peddling a story without all the facts, can't give him my vote."

If this was the last ditch effort by the Democrats to question President Bush's leadership, it has devolved into a mess of technical facts that are in dispute. My attention waned at the Pentagon's press conference when the Major told me what he did for a living and how he traveled from a place called Dogwood to Elms. If the Pentagon is defending its Commander-in-Chief, it is doing so through attrition - throw out technical words and get the press hung up on the technicalities of the situation for a few days and by then the election is over.

If the Kerry campaign has another trick up its sleeve, it has to decide if it will trump this Qa Qaa story. Whatever they throw out in the next day or two (presumably over the weekend so that the news cycle favors the MSM), it had better be more damaging than this one, as it will push Al Qa Qaa off the front pages and out of everyone's minds.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Thanks Hugh!

According to my site meter, traffic is up today. Based on the referral pages, it's all coming from Hugh.

I didn't get to go to dinner last night, but maybe I'll get to meet Hugh sometime during his visit to Colorado.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

New Terrorist Threat

Drudge has an exclusive on a new terror threat. ABCNews reportedly has a tape from a terrorist threatening attacks during the election.

The terrorist claims that the streets will run with blood..yaddah yaddah yaddah.

Why give warning? Usually these types of threats are made to disrupt and, in this case to influence, the election and not to actually signal the coming attack.

The terrorists know that if Bush is elected, they get pounded for four more years. Of course, no one knows what Kerry will do, but the terrorists are betting it won't be anything like the Bush doctrine.

I'm not going to go into the fact that ABCNews was reportedly holding on to this tape until a later date. There will be plenty of other sites that go into this.

Reader Comments

Last week, I posted that one reason the polls were close was to keep the House and Senate races competitive. I also stated that I thought the Anybody But Bush movement was strong enough to keep it close.

I was a bit surprised, but pleasantly so, to see comments from some obviously - Democrat readers:

1. Kerry is about the same or even worse than Bush on some of the issues that I find most important. But I couldn't possibly hate the zealots in the Administration more, that's why I'm voting for Kerry. It's a sad state of affairs.

2. I'm not a big Kerry fan, but I can see him growing on me over time, at least until something better comes along. Bush is the reverse. His appeal is immediate and fades over time. I like Bush about 20% as much as I did in 2000. Even his folksy-charm routine has worn off of me.

3. Uh...maybe I'm dumb (Ah am aftur all one a'thum Democruts, durr!), but I think the polls are still close because...the race is still close, bub. If you think Bush has this one in the bag, you've been attending too many loyalty-oath stump speeches where dissenters aren't allowed in. Outside Honkyville USA, we are mad as heck and not going to take it anymore. The polls do not, for example, account for new registrants or for people whose cell phones are their primary numbers...and, sorry for you, but most of those two demographics (which could be huge for all we know) are going to skew Democratic. When Kerry wins by a medium-sized mini-landslide (call it a minor rockslide of electoral change), I will love to see you eat crow on this site.

The last one is my favorite. My response to the eating crow challenge is this:

If Kerry wins, I'll acknowledge him as the winner on this site. I will have been wrong, and I will deal with it. However, I don't have to become a fan and I don't have to stop criticizing him. President Bush certainly hasn't gotten a pass from the Lefties, and Kerry certainly won't get one from the Right.

That being said, if President Bush is re-elected, I expect to see franziska k. (the reader who posted #3) posting a comment to this site saying that I was right and acknowledging that President Bush is the winner. No whining about being disenfranchised or the voters of America being too dumb or Republicans stealing the election. Just a straight up acknowledgment that Bush is the winner.

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Fallout From DP's Bush Endorsement

The DP endorsed President Bush in this weekend's edition.

This morning, the letter writing, protest campaign began.

As the Post's editorial note states:

Every letter we received was critical of the Post endorsement...

Every letter? Why is it that Kerry supporters thought they would get the endorsement? Were they confident in the liberal slant of the Post? Some of the letters said they expected the RMN to give the endorsement to Bush, but not the DP. Others said they believed the DP endorsement was a spoof.

Personally, I don't think newspaper endorsements amount to much. Yes, it's free campaigning for the candidate that gets the endorsement, but as we see from today's onslaught, it can also be a means of energizing the base. It is possible that the elusive undecided voter may go with the paper's endorsement, but if a voter is still skeptical of either candidate at this point, they are most likely skeptical of any paper's opinion as well.

Monday, October 25, 2004

A Few Observations

I can't believe that there is only a week left in this election season. This fact brings me mixed emotions as I am at once relieved and uncertain about what comes next. I'm sure many bloggers are feeling the same way.

Also, I saw some of the new campaign commercials this weekend. I saw the "Wolves" ad, but to be honest, wasn't that moved. I saw the Yes on 36 ads, but have yet to see the No on 36 ads anywhere but here.

My ever observant wife pointed out that if you take the campaign commercials literally, you could derive that Bush hates children and Kerry wants terrorists to kill Americans. Exactly what kind of voters are we trying to swing anyway?

Just in Case There Was a Question...

Originally uploaded by gregsroche.
I'd like to take a break from politics to say WHOOP!!! for my Aggies.

The game was much closer than I anticipated, but incredibly exciting.

The photo above shows that, yes indeed, the ball came out before Purify hit the ground.

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Why The Polls Are Still Close...

Michael over at bestdestiny has a plausible explanation, however conspiratorial, on why this race is still close:

Were John Kerry's numbers to really reflect the way the country feels about him--debating ability or no--it would have had a significant drag effect on base enthusiasm, on fundraising, and on down-ticket candidacies. In other words, I think it somewhat likely that some pollsters have known for weeks what the recent polls show--they just couldn't expose it that early for the sake of propping up Senate, House and Gubernatorial candidates.

He goes on:

Do I have any evidence of this? No. Well, maybe. Isn't it curious the lengths that Ken Salazar has gone to to avoid being photographed with John Kerry? If Kerry were really running that strong, in this "battleground state," wouldn't you think one of the most important Senate candidates in the country would run shoulder to shoulder with him? Perhaps its just coincidence; perhaps the Dem internal polling shows how weak Kerry is and they're keeping Salazar away from him.

The one thing that this doesn't account for is the Anybody But Bush vote. I know some Dems that have stated they don't like Kerry, but they like Bush even less.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Friends of the Rocky Mountain Alliance

The RMA has added this blog under its "Friends of the Rocky Mountain Alliance" blogroll.

Thanks for the link, gentlemen. Keep up the good work!

Monday, October 18, 2004

Return to Blogging

Apologies for not posting in over a week. My other commitments have taken me away from the blog. Getting back to business, today's RMN has Bush up by 5 points in Colorado.

I've sort of given up on polls at this point. I believe that Bush will win and win outside the "margin of litigation." The only reason it still appears close is that most of the MSM wants Kerry to win and is providing the illusion of a close race just to keep the story alive.

Sunday, October 10, 2004

Sen. Ron Tupa Arrested

Sen. Ron Tupa got tossed in the slammer this weekend.

I wonder if he was trying to convince his friend to vote for Amendment 36?

The voters in Boulder sure know how to pick 'em

Post-Election Prediction

Regardless of who wins in November, the stock market will make a post-election rally. The market hates uncertainty and we definitely have plenty of this.

However, I think a Bush win produces a bigger rally. A Kerry win still produces a rally and Kerry of course will take all the credit for it. Just as Bush inherited a recession, Kerry would inherit a bull market. Neither should get the blame/credit for their respective, inherited markets.

Bush does get credit for the post-election rally whether he wins or loses.

Amendment 36 - Weekend Round-up

Check out 86 Amendment 36 for the weekend round-up of Amendment 36 related posts, including a new poll showing support for 36 slipping and the definitive statement on where Salazar stands on 36.

Friday, October 08, 2004

Feats of Strength

During one of the particularly heated exchanges of the debate, my wife turned to me and said, "Just put up a ring and let's see them fight it out. Feats of Strength and the winner gets the job."

I like it.

You can catch all the liveblogging and post-game analysis at any of the links to the left.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

86 Amendment 36

Go to 86-36 for links to the NO ON 36 website and information about the new radio commercial.

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Coors is in trouble, and 36 will pass...

RichieD at Exvigilare is worried about the election in Colorado:

So I went home to Google No on 36. Uh, no. Not even the right state. Well, no big deal, probably just simple confusion. Surely the Colorado Republican site would have some kind of information related to such a significant amendment, wouldn't it? Uh, no. Well, I know TyroBlog is following closely (check out 86 Amendment 36), he's bound to know - he even had a letter published this week in the Denver Post. The link sends me here, a dead site. Well, I know that "Coloradans Against a Really Stupid Idea" is one of the groups that is leading the charge against the idiot movement. Google it, nothing.

Sorry for all your trouble Richie D. Read my other posts at 86-36 and you can see I share in your frustration. Until last week, there had been no money donated to defeat 36 because anyone who follows politics knows its a stupid idea that won't pass. So why give money to something that should fall on its own merits when you have a presidential race and important house and senate reaces to donate to. The is a new site that a guy is volunteering to maintain. Governor Owens is committed to beating it and has landed $100,000 to put to the effort. On the upside, 36 is getting a lot more press these days. There hasn't been one newspaper in the state to endorse it and most of the columnists, except for Reggie Rivers, oppose it - even in Boulder. I share your concerns about apathy being the biggest obstacle. So start posting about it and tell all your friends to Vote NO on 36!

BTW, Google "Amendment 36" and "Colorado"

Charlie Rangel Was For the Draft, Before He Was Against It

It looks like the scare tactics to win young voters have been quashed.

Charlie Rangel's quote is priceless if you break it down:

It is a prostitution of the legislative process to take a serious issue and use it for political purposes on the eve of the election just to say they are against the draft,' said Representative Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York, the author of the bill, who ended up voting against it.

The first part:
It is a prostitution of the legislative process to take a serious issue and use it for political purposes on the eve of the election...

It is indeed. So why did you write the bill Charlie?

The second part:
...just to say they are against the draft,

Charlie, they are against the draft, they're not just saying it. They have been and forever will be.

The last part:
...said Representative Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York, the author of the bill, who ended up voting against it.

Who sponsors a bill and then votes against it? Probably someone who has been exposed as trying to manipulate the young voters of this country. Versus

In last night's VP debate, Cheney mistakenly referred to as As I drove to work this morning, I heard a caller on Bill Bennett's show mention that the DNC immediately linked to George Soros website. When I got to work I checked it out and, yep, has been rerouted to the Soros website. Also, the site seems to be down.

Sunday, October 03, 2004

Amendment 36 - Weekend Round-up

My weekend round-up of news regarding Amendment 36 is up at 86-36.